| Featured Article - February 2008
In The Shadow of Equus Success at the Track |
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| As
breeding barns gear up for another busy season and broodmare owners
anticipate great results from foals that will be born this spring, some
research from the University of Edinburgh might give just a momentary
pause for thought. According to evolutionary biologists Alistair Wilson and Andrew Rambaut, winning is less about good genes than it is about good rearing, training, and management. In fact, according to their findings, published in the Royal Society Journal, Biology Letters, environmental effects (raising, training, choice of races, skill of jockeys, and racing injuries) have a much greater influence on the lifetime earnings of a race horse (91.5 percent) compared to its genetic heritage. “Rather than having any underlying genetic basis, our analyses show that the phenotypic association between (stallion) fees and lifetime earnings arises from environmental, not genetic, effects,” wrote the authors in their paper “Breeding racehorses: what price good genes?” The authors go on to state that while it is probable that breeders who can provide the best environment and expertise for training race horses are also likely to be those best able to afford the highest stud fees, there is actually no support for the hypothesized positive genetic correlation between stallion nomination fees and lifetime prize earnings. The study was based on data relating to 554 currently (or recently) active stallions standing at stud in the United Kingdom and the United States. Each stallion was analyzed according to its farm, state or country, stud fees, and performance records both for the stallion and its ancestry going back four generations. In total they compiled a pedigree database for 4,476 horses foaled between 1922 and 2003, with stud fees for all the current horses and lifetime performance statistics for 2,500 horses. When they did the statistical math, their conclusion was that “while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion’s fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and they are a poor predictor of a foal’s prize winning potential.” In other words, paying higher stud fees does not mean breeders are buying better genes and, by association, increasing the earning power of the subsequent foal. |
The stallion’s genes are only
half of the foal’s equation; the
other 50 percent are the genes of the dam and the compatibility of both
parents’ genetic material to create a superior foal with the athletic
qualities of greatness. In their Abstract, they state that stallions with big reputations command higher stud fees, and paying these is only a sensible strategy if (i) there is a genetic variation for success on the racecourse (which is never known until the day of the race), and (ii) stud fees are an honest signal of a stallion’s genetic quality. Building a better race horse has been the mantra of owners for centuries and their philosophy of selection is not unlike animals in the wild. Here, preservation of the species (not pocketbook returns) is the motivating factor as they search for the best mate. How they pick and choose may depend on a potential mate’s fighting quality, or best shaped tail, or brightest colours, or superior nest making capability, or dancing skills. For broodmares, though, they don’t get that option for natural selection. It’s done by proxy by broodmare owners who look at performance, ancestry, and progeny. Okay, so that’s not necessarily great news for breeders. But the conclusions are likely brutally honest. The value of this study comes more sharply into focus when remembering that horse racing is a multi-billion dollar industry. As much, if not more, money is made in the breeding barns as on the track. Yet thousands of savvy race horse owners know that even if their horse only has average genes, the right management, training, footing, timed exposure to racing, and level of races chosen can bring out the best in the animal for a satisfactory racing career. Remember too that a horse’s racing career is usually short and, depending on results, they may be retired to the breeding barn, a broodmare shed, or sold into the equestrian market for a whole new career. At the end of the day a race is the sum total of the moment. The day’s the day. The footing’s the footing. The field’s the field. The jockey’s the jockey. The weather’s the weather. The outcome of a race is the result of that fleeting moment. If the race were held an hour later or a day later, the outcome might be quite different. After all, it’s a horse race. |
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